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What Polymarket is, how prediction markets work and what they cost.

Beginner4 min

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange based in New York. Here is what kinds of roles it hires for, what the interview process usually looks like and how to prepare an application.

Beginner4 min

Social sportsbooks let you make sports picks with virtual coins, and some coins can be redeemed for prizes under sweepstakes rules. They are not licensed sportsbooks, several states have moved against the model, and they work very differently from CFTC-regulated prediction markets.

Beginner11 min

Volume counts contracts traded; open interest counts contracts still open. Learn the difference with a worked prediction market example (US).

Beginner12 min

The three main types of event contracts, how many outcomes can win in each, and how the way you read the price changes from one type to the next.

Beginner12 min

From 1988's Iowa Electronic Markets to Intrade, Kalshi and Polymarket US: how prediction markets evolved and how US regulation shaped them.

Beginner5 min

Day trading means buying and selling stocks within the same day to profit from price moves. Prediction markets trade on whether an event happens, and each share ends at $1 or $0. Both are speculation, but prediction markets have a capped loss per share and a fixed end date.

Beginner3 min

It depends on who decides. US federal law treats event contracts on regulated exchanges as derivatives overseen by the CFTC, while some states call sports contracts unlicensed betting. Economically, you still risk losing your whole stake.

Beginner4 min

Prediction markets let people trade contracts on future events. Each YES share pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if not, so its price in cents is the crowd's probability estimate. Prices move as traders buy and sell on an order book, and the market resolves when the outcome is known.

Learn prediction markets

Start with what a prediction market is and how prediction markets work, then go deeper: who owns Kalshi and Shayne Coplan's story, how Kalshi makes money, fees, UMA resolution, regulation such as the CLARITY Act, and how prediction markets differ from futures contracts, day trading or political betting.