Strategies
Expected value, position sizing and the mistakes to avoid.
Bankroll Management for Prediction Markets: A Beginner's Guide
Bankroll management means setting aside a fixed amount of money you can afford to lose for prediction markets and risking only a small, consistent share of it — often 1-3% — on each position. It keeps losing streaks survivable and stops one bad call from wiping you out.
Theta Decay and Time Decay in Prediction Markets
In prediction markets, time decay means prices drift towards $1 or $0 as the resolution date approaches and uncertainty shrinks. A YES share on something that hasn't happened yet loses value each day it doesn't happen. It works like theta decay in options, but toward a fixed payout.
News Trading on Prediction Markets
News trading on prediction markets means buying or selling when new information changes an event's probability — a poll, a court ruling, an injury report. The edge comes from reacting faster or interpreting news better than other traders, and the main risks are slippage and overreaction.
EMH & Finding Your Edge in Prediction Markets
The efficient market hypothesis says prices already reflect available information, so beating the market consistently is hard. Prediction markets are often efficient on big, liquid events, but less so in thin, niche or fast-moving markets — which is where traders look for an edge.
Prediction Market Arbitrage: Kalshi & Polymarket
Prediction market arbitrage means buying opposite sides of the same event on two platforms, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, when their prices add up to less than $1. In practice gaps are small and short-lived, and fees, different resolution rules and execution risk often erase them.
How to Make Money on Polymarket: Realistic Strategies for 2026
Some traders make money on Polymarket, many don't. The approaches that work over time need an information edge, disciplined position sizing and careful cost control: research-based trading, market making with rewards, and small, fast arbitrage. There is no guaranteed strategy.
Prediction market strategies
Strategy basics without profit promises: expected value, Kelly sizing, bankroll management, market making, arbitrage, news trading, algorithmic trading and the efficient market hypothesis. Speculation carries risk — always size positions you can afford to lose.