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What will Kevin Warsh say during his October press conference?

Markets

  • Credit

    • Yes51%
    • No49%

    Volume $11.6K · Liquidity $8K

  • AI / Artificial Intelligence

    • Yes83%
    • No17%

    Volume $7.4K · Liquidity $5.8K

  • Restrictive

    • Yes84%
    • No16%

    Volume $6.9K · Liquidity $4.8K

  • Productivity

    • Yes80%
    • No20%

    Volume $6.4K · Liquidity $3.8K

  • Central Bank

    • Yes93%
    • No7%

    Volume $5.3K · Liquidity $4K

  • Uncertainty

    • Yes70%
    • No30%

    Volume $4.1K · Liquidity $2.7K

  • Shock

    • Yes80%
    • No20%

    Volume $3.8K · Liquidity $3.1K

  • Good Day

    • Yes92%
    • No8%

    Volume $3.5K · Liquidity $2K

  • Trump

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $2.6K · Liquidity $2.3K

  • Renovation

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $1.6K

  • Unchanged

    • Yes32%
    • No68%

    Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • Projection

    • Yes44%
    • No56%

    Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $961.3

  • Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas

    • Yes19%
    • No81%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $918.3

  • National Debt

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • Event does not qualify

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $810.8

  • Good Afternoon

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $998.9 · Liquidity $712.7

  • Balance Sheet

    • Yes63%
    • No37%

    Volume $941.8 · Liquidity $745.8

  • Consumer Confidence

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $875.9 · Liquidity $875.9

  • Gold

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $835.9 · Liquidity $804.7

  • Dollar

    • Yes43%
    • No57%

    Volume $828.1 · Liquidity $546.3

  • Anchor / Anchored

    • Yes63%
    • No37%

    Volume $826 · Liquidity $746

  • Iran

    • Yes15%
    • No85%

    Volume $762.2 · Liquidity $406.4

  • Diesel

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $738.3 · Liquidity $710.3

  • Geopolitical

    • Yes55%
    • No45%

    Volume $697.6 · Liquidity $585.6

  • Softening

    • Yes19%
    • No81%

    Volume $681.1 · Liquidity $455.2

  • Tax

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $581.8 · Liquidity $581.8

  • President

    • Yes56%
    • No44%

    Volume $578.1 · Liquidity $441.9

  • Commodity

    • Yes39%
    • No61%

    Volume $513.9 · Liquidity $363.8

  • Oil

    • Yes61%
    • No39%

    Volume $482.5 · Liquidity $387

  • ADP

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $476.3 · Liquidity $466.9

  • Egg

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $469 · Liquidity $469

  • Dissent

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $462.3 · Liquidity $462.3

  • Inflation Expectation

    • Yes63%
    • No37%

    Volume $407.4 · Liquidity $210.9

  • Crypto / Cryptocurrency

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $363.1 · Liquidity $363.1

  • Japan / Japanese / Yen

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $324.5 · Liquidity $207.4

  • Probability

    • Yes17%
    • No83%

    Volume $298.8 · Liquidity $298.8

  • Family Fight / Family Feud

    • Yes37%
    • No63%

    Volume $284.6 · Liquidity $180.1

  • Volatility

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $281.8 · Liquidity $156

  • Bitcoin

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $264.6 · Liquidity $264.6

  • Stagflation

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $251.2 · Liquidity $251.2

  • Recession

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $230.7 · Liquidity $207

  • Risk Management

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $223.5 · Liquidity $223.5

  • Pandemic

    • Yes33%
    • No67%

    Volume $194.2 · Liquidity $165.3

  • Independent / Independence

    • Yes71%
    • No29%

    Volume $128.9 · Liquidity $42.9

  • Shutdown / Shut Down

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $117.3 · Liquidity $109.7

  • QT / Quantitative Tightening

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $77.1 · Liquidity $70

  • QE / Quantitative Easing

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $29.2 · Liquidity $23

Resolution rules

If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says Event does not qualify at his Oct 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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