What will Kevin Warsh say during his October press conference?
Markets
Credit
- Yes51%
- No49%
Volume $11.6K · Liquidity $8K
AI / Artificial Intelligence
- Yes83%
- No17%
Volume $7.4K · Liquidity $5.8K
Restrictive
- Yes84%
- No16%
Volume $6.9K · Liquidity $4.8K
Productivity
- Yes80%
- No20%
Volume $6.4K · Liquidity $3.8K
Central Bank
- Yes93%
- No7%
Volume $5.3K · Liquidity $4K
Uncertainty
- Yes70%
- No30%
Volume $4.1K · Liquidity $2.7K
Shock
- Yes80%
- No20%
Volume $3.8K · Liquidity $3.1K
Good Day
- Yes92%
- No8%
Volume $3.5K · Liquidity $2K
Trump
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $2.6K · Liquidity $2.3K
Renovation
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $1.6K
Unchanged
- Yes32%
- No68%
Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $1.1K
Projection
- Yes44%
- No56%
Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $961.3
Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas
- Yes19%
- No81%
Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $918.3
National Debt
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $1.1K
Event does not qualify
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $810.8
Good Afternoon
- Yes9%
- No91%
Volume $998.9 · Liquidity $712.7
Balance Sheet
- Yes63%
- No37%
Volume $941.8 · Liquidity $745.8
Consumer Confidence
- Yes5%
- No95%
Volume $875.9 · Liquidity $875.9
Gold
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $835.9 · Liquidity $804.7
Dollar
- Yes43%
- No57%
Volume $828.1 · Liquidity $546.3
Anchor / Anchored
- Yes63%
- No37%
Volume $826 · Liquidity $746
Iran
- Yes15%
- No85%
Volume $762.2 · Liquidity $406.4
Diesel
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $738.3 · Liquidity $710.3
Geopolitical
- Yes55%
- No45%
Volume $697.6 · Liquidity $585.6
Softening
- Yes19%
- No81%
Volume $681.1 · Liquidity $455.2
Tax
- Yes9%
- No91%
Volume $581.8 · Liquidity $581.8
President
- Yes56%
- No44%
Volume $578.1 · Liquidity $441.9
Commodity
- Yes39%
- No61%
Volume $513.9 · Liquidity $363.8
Oil
- Yes61%
- No39%
Volume $482.5 · Liquidity $387
ADP
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $476.3 · Liquidity $466.9
Egg
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $469 · Liquidity $469
Dissent
- Yes11%
- No89%
Volume $462.3 · Liquidity $462.3
Inflation Expectation
- Yes63%
- No37%
Volume $407.4 · Liquidity $210.9
Crypto / Cryptocurrency
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $363.1 · Liquidity $363.1
Japan / Japanese / Yen
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $324.5 · Liquidity $207.4
Probability
- Yes17%
- No83%
Volume $298.8 · Liquidity $298.8
Family Fight / Family Feud
- Yes37%
- No63%
Volume $284.6 · Liquidity $180.1
Volatility
- Yes11%
- No89%
Volume $281.8 · Liquidity $156
Bitcoin
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $264.6 · Liquidity $264.6
Stagflation
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $251.2 · Liquidity $251.2
Recession
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $230.7 · Liquidity $207
Risk Management
- Yes20%
- No80%
Volume $223.5 · Liquidity $223.5
Pandemic
- Yes33%
- No67%
Volume $194.2 · Liquidity $165.3
Independent / Independence
- Yes71%
- No29%
Volume $128.9 · Liquidity $42.9
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Yes10%
- No90%
Volume $117.3 · Liquidity $109.7
QT / Quantitative Tightening
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $77.1 · Liquidity $70
QE / Quantitative Easing
- Yes14%
- No86%
Volume $29.2 · Liquidity $23
Resolution rules
If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says Event does not qualify at his Oct 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
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