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When will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada?

Markets

  • Before Jan 1, 2027

    • Yes51%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Before Apr 1, 2027

    • Yes51%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Before Jul 1, 2027

    • Yes51%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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