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Illinois pension debt in 2026?

Markets

  • Above $170 billion

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $5.6K · Liquidity $404

  • Above $155 billion

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $2.1K · Liquidity $1.5K

  • Above $150 billion

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity $640.8

  • Above $160 billion

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $1.2K · Liquidity $733.8

  • Above $165 billion

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $893

  • Above $145 billion

    • Yes82%
    • No18%

    Volume $42.1 · Liquidity $29.9

  • Above $140 billion

    • Yes93%
    • No7%

    Volume $25 · Liquidity $9

Resolution rules

If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $140 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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