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US tariff revenue for 2026

Markets

  • Above $200‎ billion

    • Yes84%
    • No16%

    Volume $5K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • Above $250‎ billion

    • Yes70%
    • No30%

    Volume $3.7K · Liquidity $1.9K

  • Above $150‎ billion

    • Yes89%
    • No11%

    Volume $3.1K · Liquidity $1.5K

  • Above $125‎ billion

    • Yes89%
    • No11%

    Volume $384 · Liquidity $127.6

  • Above $100‎ billion

    • Yes91%
    • No9%

    Volume $170 · Liquidity $43

  • Above $80‎ billion

    • Yes92%
    • No8%

    Volume $75.5 · Liquidity $29

  • Above $300‎ billion

    • Yes39%
    • No61%

    Volume $6 · Liquidity $6

Resolution rules

If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $80‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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