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How much will Tesla deliveries grow this year?

Markets

  • Above 500000 in a single quarter

    • Yes53%
    • No47%

    Volume $103.1K · Liquidity $31.4K

  • Above 750000 in a single quarter

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $6.6K · Liquidity $3.7K

  • Above 1000000 in a single quarter

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $1.7K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • Above 2000000 in a single quarter

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $596.5

  • Above 1500000 in a single quarter

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $865.9 · Liquidity $225

Resolution rules

If Tesla delivers more than 500000 vehicles in a single quarter starting with Q1 2025 and before Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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