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2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

Markets

  • Democratic by 211 or more

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $3.1K · Liquidity $1.9K

  • Republican by 1 to 10

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $2.9K · Liquidity $2.6K

  • Republican by 211 or more

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $2.6K · Liquidity $2.1K

  • Democratic by 1 to 10

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $2.5K · Liquidity $1.2K

  • Democratic by 11 to 30

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $2.1K · Liquidity $725

  • Democratic by 131 to 210

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $2K · Liquidity $814.8

  • Democratic by 91 to 130

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $1.4K

  • Republican by 61 to 90

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $470

  • Republican by 91 to 130

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $470

  • Republican by 131 to 210

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $470

  • Republican by 11 to 30

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $670

  • Democratic by 61 to 90

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $848.8

  • Democratic by 31 to 60

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $691 · Liquidity $471

  • Republican by 31 to 60

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $481.7 · Liquidity $481.7

Resolution rules

If the Democratic candidate wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 211-538 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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