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French presidential election: who will advance?

Markets

  • François Hollande

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $2K · Liquidity $2K

  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon

    • Yes37%
    • No63%

    Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $1.6K

  • Marine Le Pen

    • Yes89%
    • No11%

    Volume $720 · Liquidity $628.6

  • Édouard Philippe

    • Yes40%
    • No60%

    Volume $494 · Liquidity $203.8

  • Jordan Bardella

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $242.6 · Liquidity $137.6

  • Raphaël Glucksmann

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $145.9 · Liquidity $23.4

  • Bernard Cazeneuve

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $80.2 · Liquidity $80.1

  • Bruno Retailleau

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $10.2 · Liquidity $10.1

  • Olivier Faure

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $4.2 · Liquidity $2

  • Sébastien Lecornu

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $3.1 · Liquidity $3

  • Élisabeth Borne

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $0.2 · Liquidity $0.1

  • Dominique de Villepin

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $0.2 · Liquidity $0.1

  • Gabriel Attal

    • Yes16%
    • No84%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If Marine Le Pen is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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