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Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?

Markets

  • Israel Katz

    • Yes17%
    • No83%

    Volume $2.6K · Liquidity $1.6K

  • Naftali Bennett

    • Yes19%
    • No81%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity $286.8

  • Avigdor Lieberman

    • Yes24%
    • No76%

    Volume $786.8 · Liquidity $404

  • Ofer Winter

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $191.9 · Liquidity $61.1

  • Itamar Ben-Gvir

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $116.4 · Liquidity $116.4

  • Gadi Eisenkot

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $12.9 · Liquidity $12.9

  • Yair Golan

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $12.9 · Liquidity $12.9

  • Yoav Gallant

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $12.9 · Liquidity $12.9

  • Benjamin Netanyahu

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $4 · Liquidity $4

  • Benny Gantz

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $4 · Liquidity $4

Resolution rules

If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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