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Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

Markets

  • No other person

    • Yes41%
    • No59%

    Volume $17.1K · Liquidity $9.8K

  • Ron DeSantis

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $5.6K · Liquidity $2.3K

  • Dan Driscoll

    • Yes23%
    • No77%

    Volume $5K · Liquidity $2.7K

  • Mike Waltz

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $3.2K · Liquidity $2.4K

  • Mike Pompeo

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $2K · Liquidity $2K

  • Tom Cotton

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $1.8K

  • Elbridge Colby

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • Wesley Hunt

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.2K · Liquidity $710

  • Joni Ernst

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $1K · Liquidity $873.5

  • Steve Feinberg

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $1K · Liquidity $948.8

  • Tulsi Gabbard

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $860.9 · Liquidity $639.9

  • Christopher Miller

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $493.9 · Liquidity $478.9

  • Mike Rogers

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $435.1 · Liquidity $426.1

  • Mike Gallagher

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $170.2 · Liquidity $155.2

  • Keith Kellogg

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $74 · Liquidity $64

  • Bill Hagerty

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $31.7 · Liquidity $16.7

  • Trae Stephens

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $27 · Liquidity $14

Resolution rules

If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is Keith Kellogg, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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