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Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

Markets

  • Samuel Alito

    • Yes63%
    • No37%

    Volume $52.4K · Liquidity $17.7K

  • Clarence Thomas

    • Yes44%
    • No56%

    Volume $36.3K · Liquidity $14K

  • Sonia Sotomayor

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $11.7K · Liquidity $5.9K

  • John Roberts

    • Yes17%
    • No83%

    Volume $6.3K · Liquidity $3.3K

  • Amy Coney Barrett

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $1.2K · Liquidity $1.2K

  • Ketanji Brown Jackson

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $370.5 · Liquidity $307.2

  • Elena Kagan

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $80.7 · Liquidity $71.7

  • Neil Gorsuch

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $14 · Liquidity $4

  • Brett Kavanaugh

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $8 · Liquidity $4

Resolution rules

If Sonia Sotomayor resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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