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Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?

Markets

  • Li Qiang

    • Yes55%
    • No45%

    Volume $15.1K · Liquidity $2K

  • Chen Jining

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $6.4K · Liquidity $3.1K

  • Ding Xuexiang

    • Yes21%
    • No79%

    Volume $4.6K · Liquidity $953.8

  • Li Xi

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $3.1K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • Zhao Leji

    • Yes15%
    • No85%

    Volume $2.9K · Liquidity $1K

  • Yin Li

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $2.6K · Liquidity $1.3K

  • Cai Qi

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.7K · Liquidity $257.4

  • Chen Min'er

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $531 · Liquidity $269

  • Ma Xingrui

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $527 · Liquidity $268

  • Zhang Guoqing

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $487 · Liquidity $228

  • Wang Huning

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $336 · Liquidity $179

  • Yin Yong

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $304 · Liquidity $145

  • Li Ganjie

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $298.8 · Liquidity $151.8

  • He Lifeng

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $275 · Liquidity $147

Resolution rules

If Ding Xuexiang is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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