Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
South Carolina Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 1.40M: 87%
24h vol $393.9 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Nebraska Governor-Senate combo
Jim Pillen and Pete Ricketts win: 75%
24h vol $393.9 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS let district courts hear constitutional challenges to veterans-benefits laws?
No: 75%
24h vol $389.3 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
New York's 1st District margin of victory
LaLota, 1+ pts: 85%
24h vol $385.9 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)
Democratic party: 58%
24h vol $385.5 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Will the Trump family be pardoned?
Yes: 82%
24h vol $385 · Ends Jan 21, 2029
How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
At least 14: 90%
24h vol $381.3 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Will Maryland Question 3 pass?
Yes: 97%
24h vol $337.6 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Deportations in 2026?
Above 200,000: 100%
24h vol $332.1 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which November Swiss referendums will pass?
Fireworks Initiative: 57%
24h vol $329.4 · Ends Nov 29, 2027
California's 21st District margin of victory
Costa, 2+ pts: 93%
24h vol $327 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Washington's 3rd District margin of victory
Perez, 1+ pts: 89%
24h vol $325 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Virginia's 6th District margin of victory
Cline, 3+ pts: 93%
24h vol $322 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?
Before Jan 1, 2030: 41%
24h vol $320.9 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
How many Israeli elections until a government forms?
1: 59%
24h vol $317.2 · Ends Oct 28, 2030
Maine's 2nd District margin of victory
LePage, 1+ pts: 50%
24h vol $316 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
Elif Eralp: 87%
24h vol $312.9 · Ends Oct 1, 2027
Indiana's 5th District margin of victory
Spartz, 1+ pts: 81%
24h vol $311.3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Georgia Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 2.70M: 97%
24h vol $307.8 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Texas Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 7.5M: 88%
24h vol $307 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
When will Trump, Xi and Putin meet together?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 79%
24h vol $305.5 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Mississauga mayoral election winner?
Bonnie Crombie: 47%
24h vol $302.6 · Ends Oct 26, 2027
Arizona Governor margin of victory
Biggs, 1+ pts: 8%
24h vol $300 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey's 3rd District margin of victory
Conaway, 6+ pts: 96%
24h vol $298 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Iowa Governor margin of victory
Lahn, 1+ pts: 9%
24h vol $297 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will the US acquire any new territory?
Before Jan 21, 2029: 26%
24h vol $297 · Ends Jan 21, 2029
America PAC 2026 total disbursements?
At least 60 million dollars: 92%
24h vol $290 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Texas Supreme Court Chief Justice winner?
Jimmy Blacklock: 75%
24h vol $289 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Virginia's 2nd District margin of victory
Luria, 2+ pts: 80%
24h vol $288 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida's 13th District margin of victory
Luna, 1+ pts: 65%
24h vol $286.3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Maine Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 460K: 97%
24h vol $275.2 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?
Denver: 46%
24h vol $272.3 · Ends Aug 7, 2028
Will a cabinet member be impeached?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 69%
24h vol $266.6 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?
No: 99%
24h vol $260.4 · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Milwaukee County, Wisconsin: David Crowley vote percent
At least 66%: 90%
24h vol $260.2 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)
Democratic party: 59%
24h vol $249.8 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Lima Mayor winner?
Rafael López Aliaga: 87%
24h vol $247.1 · Ends Oct 4, 2027
Ohio's 7th District margin of victory
Poindexter, 1+ pts: 91%
24h vol $244.4 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)
At least 9: 21%
24h vol $240.8 · Ends Nov 3, 2026
New Jersey's 9th District margin of victory
Pou, 2+ pts: 92%
24h vol $240 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Illinois's 14th District margin of victory
Underwood, 5+ pts: 86%
24h vol $240 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?
At least 1: 70%
24h vol $235 · Ends Jan 21, 2029
How many House seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
At least 1: 22%
24h vol $234.1 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS end the White House ballroom injunction?
No: 71%
24h vol $231.6 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Oregon Governor margin of victory
Kotek, 2+ pts: 70%
24h vol $231.3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Ohio's 10th District margin of victory
Turner, 9+ pts: 71%
24h vol $230.7 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
North Carolina's 9th District margin of victory
Hudson, 1+ pts: 63%
24h vol $230.1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Argentina presidential election: first round winner?
Javier Milei: 63%
24h vol $225.1 · Ends Oct 23, 2028