2026: Trump's bad year?
Mercados
Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volumen $272.8K · Liquidez $99.6K
Reglas de resolución
If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Cómo leer estas probabilidades
Cada precio va de 0 a 1 dólar y se puede leer como la probabilidad que el mercado asigna a un resultado: 0,62 $ equivale aproximadamente a un 62 %. Los precios cambian con cada operación, así que son una estimación colectiva, no una garantía. Antes de operar, revisa las reglas de resolución de arriba, el volumen y la liquidez, y arriesga solo dinero que puedas permitirte perder.
Más mercados de Política
Mayor of Johannesburg after municipal elections?
Helen Zille: 51%
Vol. 24h $0.5 · Cierra 31 dic 2027
Kolkata Municipal Corporation election winner?
BJP: 90%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 31 dic 2027
When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 82%
Vol. 24h $158.4 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Which Canadian provinces will call a snap election before 2028?
Manitoba: 68%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
When will Greenland call a snap election?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 14%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ted Cruz: 85%
Vol. 24h $2.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
Pete Buttigieg: 89%
Vol. 24h $2.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Who will be a part of the next government of Israel?
Yashar: 71%
Vol. 24h $378.9 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Prime Minister of Sweden after the general election?
Magdalena Andersson: 78%
Vol. 24h $116 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Will Hasan Piker announce a run for public office?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 2%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Lai Ching-te departure announced?
Before January 1, 2028: 27%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Who will be a part of the next government of Spain?
People's Party: 85%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028