Mercados de predicción de Política
Contratos de eventos de Kalshi en vivo sobre elecciones, el Congreso, políticas y líderes mundiales. Los precios muestran las probabilidades del público, no certezas.
Datos de Kalshi, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
Florida's 7th District margin of victory
Elijah, 1+ pts: 68%
Vol. 24h $2.5 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
South Carolina's 1st District margin of victory
Lacore, 2+ pts: 19%
Vol. 24h $2.4 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Texas's 35th District margin of victory
Cruz, 1+ pts: 18%
Vol. 24h $2.4 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Will Mamdani open a city-owned grocery store before 2028?
Yes: 74%
Vol. 24h $2.2 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Will Minnesota vote to increase school-fund distributions?
Yes: 92%
Vol. 24h $2.2 · Cierra 2 nov 2027
Will the US create a national AI regulator?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 72%
Vol. 24h $2 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Virginia's 8th District margin of victory
Beyer, 17+ pts: 96%
Vol. 24h $2 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned?
Before Mar 1, 2027: 71%
Vol. 24h $2 · Cierra 1 mar 2027
Connecticut Governor margin of victory
Lamont, 8+ pts: 89%
Vol. 24h $2 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Wyoming Senate margin of victory
Hageman, 26+ pts: 91%
Vol. 24h $2 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
New York's 18th District margin of victory
Ryan, 7+ pts: 88%
Vol. 24h $2 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
South Dakota Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 260K: 90%
Vol. 24h $2 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Minas Gerais: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff)
Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1%: 88%
Vol. 24h $1.9 · Cierra 25 oct 2027
California's 52nd District margin of victory
Vargas, 18+ pts: 92%
Vol. 24h $1.9 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
How long will Trump's next Press Secretary last?
At least 7 days: 92%
Vol. 24h $1.8 · Cierra 21 ene 2029
Will another state ban or pause police use of Flock cameras?
Before Apr 1, 2027: 98%
Vol. 24h $1.5 · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Starr County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
At least 50%: 86%
Vol. 24h $1.4 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
New York 21 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 96%
Vol. 24h $1.3 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Florida 22 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 230K: 92%
Vol. 24h $1.3 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Ohio 10 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 210K: 95%
Vol. 24h $1.3 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Missouri's 2nd District margin of victory
No: 80%
Vol. 24h $1.3 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Florida 27 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 91%
Vol. 24h $1.2 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Colorado 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 290K: 87%
Vol. 24h $1.2 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Colorado's 5th District margin of victory
Crank, 1+ pts: 64%
Vol. 24h $1.2 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Arizona 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 220K: 97%
Vol. 24h $1.2 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Ohio's 15th District margin of victory
Carey, 2+ pts: 53%
Vol. 24h $1.2 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
When will Canada and the EU begin association talks?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 64%
Vol. 24h $1.1 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Utah Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 85%
Vol. 24h $1.1 · Cierra 7 nov 2029
Arizona Senate winner? (2028)
Democratic party: 72%
Vol. 24h $1 · Cierra 7 nov 2029
Will the 2028 presidential election occur?
Yes: 92%
Vol. 24h $1 · Cierra 1 dic 2028
Which ballot measures will pass in Arkansas?
Citizens Only Voting Amendment: 98%
Vol. 24h $1 · Cierra 2 nov 2027
Who will be Argentina's Peronist presidential nominee?
Axel Kicillof: 59%
Vol. 24h $1 · Cierra 7 ago 2028
Webb County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
At least 56%: 89%
Vol. 24h $0.7 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Taiwan presidential election winner?
William Lai: 77%
Vol. 24h $0.6 · Cierra 30 ene 2029
Will UC reinstate its SAT/ACT requirement before 2028?
Yes: 76%
Vol. 24h $0.3 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Malaysian general election winner?
BN-anchored coalition: 41%
Vol. 24h $0.2 · Cierra 29 nov 2028
Oklahoma Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 950K: 94%
Vol. 24h $0.2 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Illinois Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 3.30M: 95%
Vol. 24h $0.1 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Kansas Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 810K: 96%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Wisconsin 07 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 270K: 88%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
New Jersey's 5th District margin of victory
Gottheimer, 4+ pts: 95%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
New Jersey 03 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 94%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
New Jersey 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 190K: 93%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
California 36 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 220K: 94%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Kenya United Opposition presidential flagbearer?
Kalonzo Musyoka: 48%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 12 jul 2027
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 74%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 nov 2029
Washington 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 150K: 96%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
New Hampshire Governor margin of victory
No: 80%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2027