Reading prices as odds

A price of 35¢ means the market sees roughly a 35% chance. That's called the implied probability.

Quick example

You buy 10 YES at 35¢ = $3.50. If YES wins, you get $10. If it loses, you get $0.

Don't forget

• Prices change as news arrives.
• Fees and the bid/ask spread move your real break-even a little.
• A price is an estimate, not a promise.