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US employer health insurance cost growth in Q3 2026

Markets

  • Above 4.5%

    • Yes99%
    • No1%

    Volume $100 · Liquidity $100

  • Above 6.5%

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $22 · Liquidity $22

  • Above 5.0%

    • Yes96%
    • No4%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 5.5%

    • Yes91%
    • No9%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 6.0%

    • Yes55%
    • No45%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 7.0%

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 7.5%

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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