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10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

Markets

  • 5.15% or above

    • Yes45%
    • No55%

    Volume $11.9K · Liquidity $4.6K

  • 4.75% or above

    • Yes87%
    • No13%

    Volume $11.7K · Liquidity $6.8K

  • 5% or above

    • Yes67%
    • No33%

    Volume $10.6K · Liquidity $5K

  • 5.1% or above

    • Yes51%
    • No49%

    Volume $10K · Liquidity $4.8K

  • 5.5% or above

    • Yes30%
    • No70%

    Volume $4.9K · Liquidity $2.8K

  • 5.25% or above

    • Yes46%
    • No54%

    Volume $4.2K · Liquidity $1.5K

  • 6% or above

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $1.7K · Liquidity $893.6

  • 5.75% or above

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $690.5 · Liquidity $548.3

Resolution rules

If the 10Y US Treasury Yield is above 4.74% on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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