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Which of these African leaders will leave office next?

Markets

  • Félix Tshisekedi

    • Yes6%
    • No95%

    Volume $10.5K · Liquidity $2K

  • Bola Tinubu

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $2.8K · Liquidity $2.2K

  • Cyril Ramaphosa

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $2.4K · Liquidity $1.6K

  • Emmerson Mnangagwa

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $2.3K · Liquidity $1.4K

  • William Ruto

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $2.2K · Liquidity $1.4K

  • Paul Kagame

    • Yes5%
    • No96%

    Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $1.6K

  • Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $1K

  • Taye Atske Selassie

    • Yes5%
    • No96%

    Volume $1K · Liquidity $741

  • Abdelmadjid Tebboune

    • Yes7%
    • No94%

    Volume $351 · Liquidity $205

  • John Mahama

    • Yes6%
    • No95%

    Volume $252 · Liquidity $170

Resolution rules

If the President of Kenya is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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