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California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

Markets

  • No, ≥1%

    • Yes70%
    • No30%

    Volume $6.9K · Liquidity $4.9K

  • No, ≥22%

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $6.7K · Liquidity $1.4K

  • No, ≥4%

    • Yes45%
    • No55%

    Volume $5.6K · Liquidity $3.4K

  • No, ≥7%

    • Yes69%
    • No31%

    Volume $2.5K · Liquidity $2.1K

  • No, ≥10%

    • Yes24%
    • No76%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • No, ≥16%

    • Yes18%
    • No82%

    Volume $600 · Liquidity $600

  • No, ≥13%

    • Yes31%
    • No69%

    Volume $400 · Liquidity $400

  • No, ≥19%

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $203.1 · Liquidity $203.1

Resolution rules

If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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