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Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?

Markets

  • Alice Weidel

    • Yes52%
    • No48%

    Volume $2.8K · Liquidity $1.7K

  • Friedrich Merz

    • Yes19%
    • No81%

    Volume $718.9 · Liquidity $718.9

  • Felix Banaszak

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $181.5 · Liquidity $165.8

  • No one

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $16.1 · Liquidity $16.1

  • Lars Klingbeil

    • Yes8%
    • No93%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Baerbel Bas

    • Yes8%
    • No93%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If Friedrich Merz becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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