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Which Senate races will be within 1 point?

Markets

  • Michigan

    • Yes24%
    • No76%

    Volume $2K · Liquidity $1.3K

  • Kansas

    • Yes18%
    • No82%

    Volume $587.3 · Liquidity $518.3

  • Iowa

    • Yes16%
    • No84%

    Volume $581.3 · Liquidity $360.5

  • Nebraska

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $565.4 · Liquidity $373

  • Maine

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $564 · Liquidity $564

  • Florida (special)

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $547.1 · Liquidity $547.1

  • Ohio (special)

    • Yes17%
    • No83%

    Volume $444 · Liquidity $144

  • Texas

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $403.4 · Liquidity $359.9

  • Alaska

    • Yes17%
    • No83%

    Volume $398 · Liquidity $268

  • South Carolina

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $210.7 · Liquidity $160.7

  • New Hampshire

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $94 · Liquidity $94

  • North Carolina

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $18.8 · Liquidity $18.8

Resolution rules

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas falls within 0 to 1 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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