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Spanish general election: margin of victory

Markets

  • People's Party, 9-12%

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $936 · Liquidity $403

  • People's Party, 0-3%

    • Yes18%
    • No82%

    Volume $915 · Liquidity $350.5

  • People's Party, ≥12%

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $629.5 · Liquidity $350

  • People's Party, 6-9%

    • Yes27%
    • No73%

    Volume $573.5 · Liquidity $350.5

  • People's Party, 3-6%

    • Yes29%
    • No71%

    Volume $563.5 · Liquidity $350

  • PSOE, 0-3%

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $563.5 · Liquidity $350

  • PSOE, ≥3%

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $482.5 · Liquidity $350.5

Resolution rules

If the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is within 0% to 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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