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New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?

Markets

  • Christopher Luxon

    • Yes58%
    • No42%

    Volume $3.5K · Liquidity $2.3K

  • Chris Hipkins

    • Yes41%
    • No59%

    Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $873

  • Chlöe Swarbrick

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • David Seymour

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity $819

  • Chris Bishop

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $871

  • Nicola Willis

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1K · Liquidity $946

  • Winston Peters

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1K · Liquidity $941

  • Marama Davidson

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $871 · Liquidity $871

  • Debbie Ngarewa-Packer

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $871 · Liquidity $871

  • Rawiri Waititi

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $871 · Liquidity $871

  • Erica Stanford

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $871 · Liquidity $871

  • Simeon Brown

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $871 · Liquidity $871

  • Mark Mitchell

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $871 · Liquidity $871

  • Qiulae Wong

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $871 · Liquidity $871

Resolution rules

If Christopher Luxon becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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