Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Maryland Governor winner?
Wes Moore: 98%
24h vol $6.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
2028 popular vote margin of victory?
Democratic by 9.0% or more: 23%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends May 6, 2029
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
Pete Hegseth: 26%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
No: 79%
24h vol $5.9K · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Minnesota Governor-Senate combo
Amy Klobuchar and Peggy Flanagan win: 86%
24h vol $5.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory
Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%: 37%
24h vol $5.7K · Ends Oct 25, 2027
Ohio Governor-Senate combo
Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown win: 67%
24h vol $5.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Iowa Governor margin of victory
Sand, 1+ pts: 85%
24h vol $5.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (10/18 - 10/24)
No: 96%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Kansas Governor-Senate combo
Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win: 58%
24h vol $4.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ted Cruz: 88%
24h vol $4.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)
53: 12%
24h vol $4.4K · Ends Feb 1, 2029
How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
At least 210: 99%
24h vol $4.4K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
South Carolina Governor winner?
Alan Wilson: 94%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Texas Governor margin of victory
No: 82%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Colorado's AI rules take effect before February 2027?
Yes: 94%
24h vol $4K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
New Hampshire Governor winner?
Kelly Ayotte: 95%
24h vol $3.9K · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
Before January 21, 2029: 17%
24h vol $3.8K · Ends Jan 21, 2029
Iowa Senate margin of victory
Turek, 2+ pts: 37%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
2028 Republican VP nominee
Marco Rubio: 26%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends Nov 7, 2028
How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
At least 182: 86%
24h vol $3.4K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
2026: Trump's dream year?
No: 96%
24h vol $3.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2027
Who will Trump pardon?
Eric Trump: 66%
24h vol $3.1K · Ends Jan 21, 2029
LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra: 51%
24h vol $2.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will President Trump be impeached during his term?
Yes: 65%
24h vol $2.8K · Ends Jan 20, 2029
California Governor margin of victory
Democrats, 12+ pts: 95%
24h vol $2.8K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Next French presidential election: 1st place (1st round)
Marine Le Pen: 88%
24h vol $2.8K · Ends Apr 18, 2028
Closest Governor race in 2026?
Georgia: 18%
24h vol $2.8K · Ends Jan 20, 2027
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
Democrats, ≥2%: 94%
24h vol $2.7K · Ends Feb 3, 2027
Maine Senate margin of victory
Collins, 1+ pts: 33%
24h vol $2.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Georgia Governor margin of victory
Bottoms, 1+ pts: 50%
24h vol $2.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Alaska Governor-Senate combo
Democrats sweep: 72%
24h vol $2.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Ohio Governor margin of victory
Ramaswamy, 1+ pts: 18%
24h vol $2.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Ohio Senate margin of victory
Husted, 2+ pts: 23%
24h vol $2.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Prime Minister of Spain after the next election?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo: 80%
24h vol $2.2K · Ends Aug 22, 2028
Prime Minister of Serbia after the next election?
Aleksandar Vučić: 74%
24h vol $2.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2028
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
Pete Buttigieg: 89%
24h vol $2.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Texas Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 8.20M: 90%
24h vol $2.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Winnipeg mayoral election winner?
Scott Gillingham: 93%
24h vol $2.1K · Ends Oct 28, 2027
Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?
Proposition 136: 81%
24h vol $2K · Ends Nov 2, 2027
Kansas Senate margin of victory
Marshall, 1+ pts: 57%
24h vol $1.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?
8: 36%
24h vol $1.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory
Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1%: 68%
24h vol $1.8K · Ends Oct 25, 2027
Maine Governor-Senate combo
Hannah Pingree and Troy Jackson win: 66%
24h vol $1.8K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will the US acquire any new territory?
Before Jan 21, 2029: 27%
24h vol $1.8K · Ends Jan 21, 2029
What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
Cuba: 5%
24h vol $1.8K · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Serbian parliamentary election winner?
SNS-led list: 66%
24h vol $1.7K · Ends Jun 30, 2027
2026 Midterms: U.S. House turnout?
115 to 119.99 million: 30%
24h vol $1.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2027