Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?
8: 36%
24h vol $1.8K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Kansas Governor-Senate combo
Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win: 58%
24h vol $1.8K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Georgia Governor-Senate combo
Keisha Lance Bottoms and Jon Ossoff win: 61%
24h vol $1.8K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan Governor-Senate combo
Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed win: 69%
24h vol $1.8K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York Governor margin of victory
Hochul, 4+ pts: 90%
24h vol $1.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
West Virginia Senate margin of victory
Capito, 28+ pts: 91%
24h vol $1.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Trump resign during his term?
No: 77%
24h vol $1.6K · Ends Jan 21, 2029
Will the Citrini scenario happen?
No: 81%
24h vol $1.5K · Ends Jul 1, 2028
California Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 10M: 94%
24h vol $1.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will be Chair of House Financial Services?
Maxine Waters: 90%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Winnipeg mayoral election winner?
Scott Gillingham: 93%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Oct 28, 2027
Wisconsin Governor margin of victory
Crowley, 1+ pts: 70%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Minnesota's 5th District margin of victory
Omar, 47+ pts: 89%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
Above 4.1 million: 98%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Nov 10, 2026
How many states will Trump visit in Oct 2026?
At least 21: 99%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
2026 Midterms: U.S. House turnout?
115 to 119.99 million: 30%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan Senate margin of victory
Rogers, 1+ pts: 26%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Ohio Senate margin of victory
Husted, 1+ pts: 99%
24h vol $1.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
South Carolina Senate margin of victory
Andrews, 4+ pts: 27%
24h vol $1.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan's 4th District margin of victory
McCann, 1+ pts: 70%
24h vol $1.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?
Yes: 76%
24h vol $1.2K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Brazil President, Israel PM & U.S. Senate combo
Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Democrats: 36%
24h vol $1.2K · Ends Oct 27, 2027
South Dakota margin of victory
Jackley, 10+ pts: 94%
24h vol $1.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Nebraska Senate margin of victory
Ricketts, 1+ pts: 69%
24h vol $1.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Iowa Senate margin of victory
Hinson, 1+ pts: 53%
24h vol $1.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Michigan's 7th District margin of victory
Lawrence, 1+ pts: 69%
24h vol $1.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Nebraska's 2nd District margin of victory
Powell, 1+ pts: 91%
24h vol $1K · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?
No: 93%
24h vol $1K · Ends Oct 15, 2029
Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?
Maine: 36%
24h vol $1K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Will NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
No: 78%
24h vol $1K · Ends Jan 5, 2027
2028 Senate winner
Democratic party: 54%
24h vol $996.6 · Ends Feb 1, 2029
2028 U.S. Vice-Presidential Election winner
Marco Rubio: 12%
24h vol $982 · Ends Jan 6, 2030
Will Democrats win a House supermajority in the Midterms?
No: 94%
24h vol $970.2 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Michigan Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 4.10M: 95%
24h vol $955 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Hampshire Senate margin of victory
Pappas, 2+ pts: 88%
24h vol $916.3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Tennessee Governor margin of victory
Blackburn, 3+ pts: 95%
24h vol $851.9 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Alaska Senate election margin of victory
Mary Peltola, 0-3%: 23%
24h vol $843.8 · Ends Jun 2, 2027
Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?
Proposition 316: 89%
24h vol $826.8 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
Taiwan Local Elections winner?
Kuomintang: 65%
24h vol $823.3 · Ends Nov 28, 2027
Who will Trump nominate as U.S. Ambassador to Greece?
Gus Bilirakis: 13%
24h vol $822.7 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Likud win?
Above 17: 89%
24h vol $820.5 · Ends Oct 27, 2027
Florida Governor margin of victory
Jolly, 1+ pts: 16%
24h vol $820 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Vermont Governor margin of victory
Republicans, 2+ pts: 72%
24h vol $797.7 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which ballot measures will pass in California?
Proposition 1: 97%
24h vol $783.4 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will be the next new Speaker of the House?
Hakeem Jeffries: 95%
24h vol $779.4 · Ends Jan 1, 2031
Texas's 23rd District margin of victory
Herrera, 8+ pts: 69%
24h vol $766.2 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 71%
24h vol $763.6 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Idaho Senate margin of victory
Risch, 3+ pts: 92%
24h vol $756.5 · Ends Nov 3, 2027