Mercados de predicción de Política
Contratos de eventos de Kalshi en vivo sobre elecciones, el Congreso, políticas y líderes mundiales. Los precios muestran las probabilidades del público, no certezas.
Datos de Kalshi, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?
Adam Telle: 41%
Vol. 24h $41 · Cierra 8 ene 2030
Wyoming margin of victory
Gray, 25+ pts: 79%
Vol. 24h $41 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Alabama Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 1.34M: 88%
Vol. 24h $41 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Arizona Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 2M: 87%
Vol. 24h $40.1 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
AfD in a German state government?
Before Jan 1, 2030: 95%
Vol. 24h $40 · Cierra 1 ene 2030
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
Rogers, 27+ pts: 90%
Vol. 24h $40 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
New York's 15th District margin of victory
Torres, 52+ pts: 95%
Vol. 24h $40 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Florida's 17th District margin of victory
Steube, 1+ pts: 96%
Vol. 24h $40 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Who will be Israeli foreign minister after the election?
Yair Lapid: 26%
Vol. 24h $40 · Cierra 27 oct 2027
New York's 6th District margin of victory
Meng, 10+ pts: 95%
Vol. 24h $40 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Pennsylvania's 7th District margin of victory
Brooks, 1+ pts: 79%
Vol. 24h $40 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Texas's 32nd District margin of victory
Yarbrough, 3+ pts: 77%
Vol. 24h $40 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Alaska Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 190K: 91%
Vol. 24h $40 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Kentucky's 6th District margin of victory
Alvarado, 1+ pts: 51%
Vol. 24h $39.7 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?
0: 48%
Vol. 24h $39 · Cierra 20 ene 2029
Kentucky's 1st District margin of victory
Comer, 28+ pts: 93%
Vol. 24h $39 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Will Mamdani run for re-election?
Yes: 78%
Vol. 24h $38.5 · Cierra 6 abr 2029
Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?
No: 90%
Vol. 24h $38.5 · Cierra 1 ene 2029
Will SCOTUS allow Arizona’s citizenship-proof and pre-election noncitizen-removal rules?
Yes: 60%
Vol. 24h $38.3 · Cierra 1 ago 2028
Arizona's 8th District margin of victory
Hamadeh, 3+ pts: 83%
Vol. 24h $37.9 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Will a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?
No: 96%
Vol. 24h $36.2 · Cierra 7 nov 2028
How many House seats will Democrats win in California?
48: 79%
Vol. 24h $36 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?
No: 86%
Vol. 24h $33.7 · Cierra 1 mar 2028
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)
Kamala Harris: 35%
Vol. 24h $33 · Cierra 1 nov 2028
Utah's 4th District margin of victory
Kennedy, 13+ pts: 83%
Vol. 24h $32.9 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
New Mexico 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 250K: 80%
Vol. 24h $32 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
Strong, 13+ pts: 90%
Vol. 24h $32 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
At least 10: 96%
Vol. 24h $31.7 · Cierra 3 ene 2027
Virginia 08 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 94%
Vol. 24h $31.5 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Will Netanyahu be arrested?
Before Jan 1, 2027: 4%
Vol. 24h $29.4 · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law?
On Dec 10, 2026: 99%
Vol. 24h $29 · Cierra 20 nov 2027
French presidential election: who will advance?
Marine Le Pen: 89%
Vol. 24h $28 · Cierra 17 abr 2028
Florida Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 89%
Vol. 24h $27.8 · Cierra 7 nov 2029
Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass)
Karen Bass, ≥4%: 42%
Vol. 24h $27.3 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
How many affordable homes will NYC finance in FY2027?
Above 15,000: 86%
Vol. 24h $27.2 · Cierra 17 sept 2027
When will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica?
Before Apr 1, 2027: 21%
Vol. 24h $26.9 · Cierra 1 abr 2027
New York Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 4.9M: 90%
Vol. 24h $26.4 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
New Jersey's 10th District margin of victory
McIver, 45+ pts: 98%
Vol. 24h $26 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Which ballot measures will pass in Louisiana?
Disabled Veteran Spouse Tax Exemption: 85%
Vol. 24h $25 · Cierra 2 nov 2027
British Columbia election: Conservative number of seats?
17 or more: 98%
Vol. 24h $24.1 · Cierra 24 oct 2027
Florida's 27th District margin of victory
Rodriguez, 1+ pts: 38%
Vol. 24h $24.1 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Who will run for Mississippi Governor in 2027?
Tommy Duff: 65%
Vol. 24h $23 · Cierra 2 feb 2027
Next French presidential election: 3rd place (1st round)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 29%
Vol. 24h $22.9 · Cierra 18 abr 2028
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Trump's term?
No: 60%
Vol. 24h $22 · Cierra 20 ene 2029
Nebraska's 2nd District margin of victory
No: 96%
Vol. 24h $21.6 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Maryland's 2nd District margin of victory
Olszewski, 14+ pts: 92%
Vol. 24h $21 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Illinois's 11th District margin of victory
Foster, 8+ pts: 91%
Vol. 24h $21 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
At least 4: 66%
Vol. 24h $20.5 · Cierra 1 ene 2027