Mercados de predicción de Política
Contratos de eventos de Kalshi en vivo sobre elecciones, el Congreso, políticas y líderes mundiales. Los precios muestran las probabilidades del público, no certezas.
Datos de Kalshi, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
Will nonstop U.S.–Lebanon passenger flights resume?
Before Apr 1, 2027: 24%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 abr 2027
Will China approve extra central government bonds of at least 1 trillion yuan?
No: 85%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 abr 2027
Will Trump abolish the Department of Education?
No: 88%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 20 ene 2029
Will Israel and Syria normalize relations during Trump's term?
No: 85%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 20 ene 2029
Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations during Trump's term?
No: 87%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 20 ene 2029
When will NCAA settlement back-pay payments begin?
Before Jan 1, 2029: 27%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2029
West Virginia governor winner? (2028)
Republican: 90%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 nov 2029
Florida 27 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 91%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Will NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
No: 78%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 5 ene 2027
RFK Jr. out as HHS Secretary?
Before Jan 1, 2029: 75%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2029
Will the EFTA II discharge petition reach 218 signatures?
No: 51%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 ene 2027
How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?
At least 1: 38%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 ene 2027
Highest third-party vote share in a 2026 Senate race?
At least 2%: 98%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 ene 2027
Will SCOTUS end the White House ballroom injunction?
No: 71%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2029
When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 56%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Cape Verde presidential election winner?
PAICV: 81%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 15 nov 2027
Tennessee 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 170K: 96%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Belize City mayoral election winner?
PUP: 87%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 2 mar 2028
How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
At least 7: 41%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Swalwell, Gonzales, Mills, and Cherfilus-McCormick out as Representatives?
No: 90%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2026
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)
Democratic party: 92%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 nov 2029
Will Rubio and Vance run for President?
Yes: 52%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Iowa Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 64%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 nov 2029
FY2026 Commerce Department gifts and bequests (including Gold Card receipts)
Above $1M: 99%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2027
How many U.S. visas will be revoked in 2026?
At least 100,000: 90%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 abr 2027
2028 Electoral College margin of victory?
Democratic by 91 to 130: 13%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 6 may 2029
New Hampshire's 1st District margin of victory
No: 92%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Nebraska's 3rd District margin of victory
Smith, 36+ pts: 90%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Hawaii Senate winner? (2028)
Democratic party: 86%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 nov 2029
Florida Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 89%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 nov 2029
Who will run for president in 2028?
Andrew Yang: 78%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 nov 2028
Will SCOTUS let district courts hear constitutional challenges to veterans-benefits laws?
No: 75%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ago 2028
Will SCOTUS allow First Step Act halfway-house claims under §2241?
Yes: 58%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ago 2028
Will SCOTUS require state-law compensation in private natural-gas condemnations?
Yes: 54%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ago 2028
Will Newsom call a California special session?
No: 83%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Colorado 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 210K: 90%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Pennsylvania 08 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 220K: 95%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Will SCOTUS bar successive habeas claims that could have been raised earlier?
Yes: 69%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ago 2028
When will the EU enact a social media ban for children?
Before Apr 1, 2028: 34%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 abr 2028
Prague mayoral election winner?
Petr Hlaváček: 90%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 10 oct 2027
When will Canada announce a snap election?
Before Jul 1, 2028: 28%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 jul 2028
Turkish presidential election: first round winner?
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 63%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 may 2029
Arizona 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 240K: 95%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Will HART push back Skyline's 2031 opening date?
Yes: 61%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
UK Renewables Obligation scheme changes
ROC recycle removal: 49%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
FTC antitrust case against Meta revived on appeal?
No: 58%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2029
Will the EU's ETIAS accept applications before 2028?
Yes: 72%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
When will Trump nominate a Federal Reserve governor?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 71%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028