Mercados de predicción de Tecnología y ciencia
Mercados de Kalshi en vivo sobre IA, espacio, lanzamientos tecnológicos e hitos científicos.
Datos de Kalshi, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
Where will Waymo operate before 2028?
Sacramento, CA: 88%
Vol. 24h $934.5 · Cierra 31 dic 2027
Which states will robotaxi be offered to in 2026?
Nevada: 90%
Vol. 24h $544.6 · Cierra 31 ene 2027
US test scores in Math in 2026?
No significant difference: 43%
Vol. 24h $275 · Cierra 31 dic 2027
US test scores in Reading in 2026?
No significant difference: 44%
Vol. 24h $249 · Cierra 31 dic 2027
Next LandSpace Zhuque-3 launch
Before Jan 1, 2028: 96%
Vol. 24h $205 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
When will AI score above 170 on Epoch Capabilities Index?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 96%
Vol. 24h $200 · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
United States: 57%
Vol. 24h $146.7 · Cierra 1 ene 2031
When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
Before 2028: 69%
Vol. 24h $144.3 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2028?
Yes: 69%
Vol. 24h $80.8 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
When will Anthropic release Claude 6?
Before Dec 31, 2027: 90%
Vol. 24h $63 · Cierra 31 dic 2027
When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
Before 2030: 74%
Vol. 24h $35.8 · Cierra 7 ene 2032
Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?
No: 80%
Vol. 24h $33.1 · Cierra 1 ene 2030
Best LLM at the end of the decade?
Google: 76%
Vol. 24h $28.9 · Cierra 31 dic 2029
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
Yes: 58%
Vol. 24h $25.6 · Cierra 1 ene 2030
When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?
Before 2040: 76%
Vol. 24h $25.5 · Cierra 7 ene 2040
Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
Before 2030: 67%
Vol. 24h $19.8 · Cierra 1 ene 2030
Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?
Before Jan 1, 2032: 51%
Vol. 24h $15 · Cierra 1 ene 2032
When will Virgin Galactic launch their next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip
Before July 2027: 88%
Vol. 24h $12.2 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
before 2027: 96%
Vol. 24h $8.6 · Cierra 1 abr 2027
Next pandemic
Before 2030: 22%
Vol. 24h $6.6 · Cierra 31 dic 2029
When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
Before 2028: 92%
Vol. 24h $6 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?
Yes: 67%
Vol. 24h $2.9 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
When will P vs NP be resolved?
Before 2030: 57%
Vol. 24h $1 · Cierra 7 ene 2040
When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
Before 2032: 75%
Vol. 24h $1 · Cierra 7 ene 2032
Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?
Yes: 50%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
No: 75%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2050
When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
Before 2028: 89%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
No: 70%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2050
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
Yes: 54%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2035
Will the FDA approve VERVE-102?
Before 2035: 87%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2035
When will all Millennium Prize Problems be solved?
Before 2040: 38%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 ene 2040
When will AI score above 65 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 83%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 jul 2027
When will OpenAI release GPT-7?
Before 2028: 82%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
before April 2027: 69%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 abr 2027
When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
Before 2040: 52%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2040
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?
No: 90%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ago 2099
Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?
United States: 66%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 31 dic 2029
When will Yang–Mills and the Mass Gap be resolved?
Before 2032: 49%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 ene 2032
When will Blue Origin launch New Shepard?
Before 2029: 40%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2029
Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027?
At least 60%: 83%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 31 dic 2027
How many locally acquired dengue cases will be reported in Florida in 2026?
250 or more: 99%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 24 ene 2027
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?
Yes: 54%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2030
Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?
Before Jul 1, 2028: 95%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 jul 2028
Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
Hodge Conjecture: 50%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2045
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
Z AI: 99%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2030
New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?
Yes: 55%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028