Finding value with expected value

Expected value (EV) compares your estimate with the price.

EV per contract = your probability × $1 − price − fees

Example

You estimate 60%, YES costs 52¢, fee ≈ 2¢. EV ≈ 60¢ − 52¢ − 2¢ = +6¢.

Be honest

EV is only as good as your estimate. Write down why you think the market is wrong before you trade.