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National Book Award for Fiction

Markets

  • The Disappearers

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.2K · Liquidity $862.6

  • Red Ants

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $231.6 · Liquidity $219.6

  • Python’s Kiss

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $200 · Liquidity $200

  • Passengers

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $170 · Liquidity $170

  • The Renovation

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $170 · Liquidity $170

  • Paradiso 17

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $8.5 · Liquidity $8.5

  • Dèy

    • Yes42%
    • No58%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Pretend You’re Dead and I Carry You

    • Yes47%
    • No54%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Beginning Middle End

    • Yes45%
    • No56%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Mad Eden

    • Yes47%
    • No54%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Tie

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If 'Paradiso 17' wins the award for Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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