MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?
Markets
At least 15%
- Yes30%
- No70%
Volume $115.1 · Liquidity $64.6
Below 15%
- Yes80%
- No20%
Volume $6.2 · Liquidity $6.2
Resolution rules
If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Economy markets
US nominal GDP growth in 2033
Above 0.0%: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 28, 2034
US headline CPI inflation in December 2033
Above 0.5%: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2034
US labor force participation rate at year-end 2033
Above 56.00%: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 6, 2034
US unemployment rate at year-end 2033
Above 3.0%: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 6, 2034
Fed funds rate at end of 2033
Above 1.75%: 84%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2034
US real GDP growth in 2033?
1.6% to 2.0%: 23%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 28, 2034
US real GDP growth in 2032?
2.1% to 2.5%: 10%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 28, 2033
Fed funds rate at end of 2034
Above 1.25%: 88%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2035
US labor force participation rate at year-end 2034
Above 56.00%: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 5, 2035
US unemployment rate at year-end 2034
Above 3.0%: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 5, 2035
US trade deficit for 2032
Above $500 billion: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 7, 2033
US headline CPI inflation in December 2032
Above 0.0%: 79%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2033