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Fed funds rate at end of 2034

Markets

  • Above 1.25%

    • Yes88%
    • No12%

    Volume $419 · Liquidity $242

  • Above 1.75%

    • Yes62%
    • No38%

    Volume $254 · Liquidity $174

  • Above 1.00%

    • Yes79%
    • No21%

    Volume $229.1 · Liquidity $225.1

  • Above 5.50%

    • Yes26%
    • No74%

    Volume $176 · Liquidity $83

  • Above 5.75%

    • Yes24%
    • No76%

    Volume $160 · Liquidity $41

  • Above 4.50%

    • Yes41%
    • No59%

    Volume $150 · Liquidity $78

  • Above 5.25%

    • Yes30%
    • No70%

    Volume $136 · Liquidity $76

  • Above 1.50%

    • Yes58%
    • No42%

    Volume $133 · Liquidity $66

  • Above 5.00%

    • Yes32%
    • No68%

    Volume $130 · Liquidity $88

  • Above 2.50%

    • Yes64%
    • No36%

    Volume $110 · Liquidity $67

  • Above 6.00%

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $96 · Liquidity $12

  • Above 2.75%

    • Yes29%
    • No71%

    Volume $71 · Liquidity $44

  • Above 4.75%

    • Yes33%
    • No67%

    Volume $38 · Liquidity $30

  • Above 2.25%

    • Yes62%
    • No38%

    Volume $24 · Liquidity $16

  • Above 2.00%

    • Yes67%
    • No33%

    Volume $17 · Liquidity $13

  • Above 3.25%

    • Yes48%
    • No52%

    Volume $12 · Liquidity $8

  • Above 4.25%

    • Yes30%
    • No70%

    Volume $3 · Liquidity $3

  • Above 3.50%

    • Yes48%
    • No52%

    Volume $2 · Liquidity $2

  • Above 3.75%

    • Yes44%
    • No56%

    Volume $2 · Liquidity $2

  • Above 4.00%

    • Yes31%
    • No69%

    Volume $2 · Liquidity $2

  • Above 3.00%

    • Yes55%
    • No45%

    Volume $2 · Liquidity $2

Resolution rules

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2034, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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