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Canadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. EVs at the end of 2026

Markets

  • Above 20%

    • Yes65%
    • No35%

    Volume $253 · Liquidity $250.4

  • Above 30%

    • Yes38%
    • No62%

    Volume $233 · Liquidity $215.2

  • Above 0%

    • Yes81%
    • No19%

    Volume $158.5 · Liquidity $0.2

  • Above 40%

    • Yes24%
    • No76%

    Volume $15.2 · Liquidity $15.2

  • Above 10%

    • Yes78%
    • No22%

    Volume $9.2 · Liquidity $9.2

  • Above 50%

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $5.3 · Liquidity $5.3

Resolution rules

If the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET is above 0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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