Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026
Markets
Above 3.75%
- Yes99%
- No1%
Volume $2.3K · Liquidity $1K
Above 4.50%
- Yes7%
- No93%
Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $1.3K
Above 3.50%
- Yes99%
- No1%
Volume $1.5K · Liquidity $1K
Above 4.00%
- Yes84%
- No16%
Volume $650 · Liquidity $450
Above 4.25%
- Yes28%
- No72%
Volume $260 · Liquidity $158
Resolution rules
If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 is above 3.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Economy markets
SOFR at end of Q4 2026
Above 3.00%: 99%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 4, 2027
Number of rate hikes in 2026?
Exactly 2: 72%
24h vol $10.2K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Edmonton home price below C$440K in 2026?
No: 76%
24h vol $16.5 · Ends Jan 5, 2027
Montreal single-family home price below C$625K in 2026?
No: 72%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 5, 2027
50% tariffs on Canadian autos and steel in effect?
No: 76%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 2, 2027
Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year?
No: 92%
24h vol $1.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027?
More than $1.4 trillion: 16%
24h vol $1.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will rates hit zero in 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $799.5 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
No: 98%
24h vol $189.9 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
7 or more cuts: 64%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
How high will the 30-year mortgage rate get in 2026?
Above 7.4%: 79%
24h vol $596.3 · Ends Jan 1, 2027