Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?
Markets
Dot Plot Omitted
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $17.9K · Liquidity $7.7K
Presser Skipped
- Yes12%
- No88%
Volume $15.6K · Liquidity $5.1K
Reserve President Rejected
- Yes13%
- No87%
Volume $7.2K · Liquidity $900
Trimmed Mean Emphasized
- Yes11%
- No89%
Volume $3.5K · Liquidity $2.7K
Reserve President Removed
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $184 · Liquidity $81.5
Resolution rules
If a Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants’ federal-funds-rate projections after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Economy markets
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Exactly 0 cuts: 94%
24h vol $45K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Fed rate cut before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $29.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027
Exactly 2: 68%
24h vol $5.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
No: 87%
24h vol $362.2 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Highest natural gas spot price in 2026
$4.51 or above: 39%
24h vol $221.8 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
0 cuts: 96%
24h vol $206.5 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
How high will DXY get in 2026?
Above 101.75: 99%
24h vol $184.4 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
France credit rating downgrade in 2026?
Yes: 85%
24h vol $145.2 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?
Above $1100: 11%
24h vol $31 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Lowest natural gas spot price in 2026
$1.99 or below: 54%
24h vol $27.3 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which central banks will hike before 2027?
Bank of England: 92%
24h vol $14.5 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?
No: 97%
24h vol $7 · Ends Jan 1, 2027