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Social Security COLA for 2028

Markets

  • Above 1.5%

    • Yes83%
    • No17%

    Volume $2.9K · Liquidity $947

  • Above 3.0%

    • Yes31%
    • No69%

    Volume $2.2K · Liquidity $234.1

  • Above 4.5%

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $2.1K · Liquidity $580

  • Above 4.0%

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $223.7

  • Above 2.5%

    • Yes51%
    • No49%

    Volume $852.2 · Liquidity $269

  • Above 2.0%

    • Yes76%
    • No24%

    Volume $385 · Liquidity $1

  • Above 3.5%

    • Yes23%
    • No77%

    Volume $224.3 · Liquidity $200

Resolution rules

If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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