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How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?

Markets

  • Above 91,500 MW

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $207.6K · Liquidity $36.4K

  • Above 92,000 MW

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $144.8K · Liquidity $49.5K

  • Above 94,000 MW

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $87.5K · Liquidity $17.9K

  • Above 93,000 MW

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $84.1K · Liquidity $35.7K

  • Above 92,500 MW

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $84.1K · Liquidity $10.8K

  • Above 96,000 MW

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $45.2K · Liquidity $26.3K

  • Above 98,000 MW

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $40.1K · Liquidity $14.9K

Resolution rules

If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 91,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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