Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
Markets
Before Jan 1, 2028
- Yes55%
- No45%
Volume $9.4K · Liquidity $5.6K
Before Jan 1, 2027
- Yes11%
- No89%
Volume $5.9K · Liquidity $3.1K
Resolution rules
If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
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