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Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory

Markets

  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3%

    • Yes32%
    • No68%

    Volume $34.1K · Liquidity $20K

  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%

    • Yes38%
    • No62%

    Volume $28.3K · Liquidity $15.7K

  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9%

    • Yes19%
    • No81%

    Volume $21.1K · Liquidity $10.8K

  • Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9%

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $18.1K · Liquidity $11.9K

  • Lula da Silva, 0-3%

    • Yes16%
    • No84%

    Volume $17.7K · Liquidity $12.3K

  • Lula da Silva, 3-6%

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $10.5K · Liquidity $8.9K

  • Lula da Silva, 6-9%

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $2.8K · Liquidity $2.6K

  • Lula da Silva, ≥9%

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $2.8K · Liquidity $2.5K

Resolution rules

If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 0% to 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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