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Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

Markets

  • Gavin Newsom

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $18.3K · Liquidity $8.1K

  • Kamala Harris

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $15.8K · Liquidity $7.9K

  • Pete Buttigieg

    • Yes36%
    • No64%

    Volume $15K · Liquidity $9.2K

  • Andy Beshear

    • Yes22%
    • No78%

    Volume $13.8K · Liquidity $7.2K

  • Josh Shapiro

    • Yes5%
    • No96%

    Volume $8.6K · Liquidity $5.2K

  • J.B. Pritzker

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $6.3K · Liquidity $5.2K

  • Wes Moore

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $4.6K · Liquidity $4.5K

  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    • Yes5%
    • No96%

    Volume $4K · Liquidity $3.1K

  • Jon Ossoff

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $4K · Liquidity $3.2K

  • Gretchen Whitmer

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $2.8K · Liquidity $2.3K

Resolution rules

If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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