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2028 Iowa Republican caucus winner?

Markets

  • J.D. Vance

    • Yes37%
    • No63%

    Volume $14 · Liquidity $12.9

  • Marco Rubio

    • Yes27%
    • No73%

    Volume $4.1 · Liquidity $2.7

  • Thomas Massie

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $1 · Liquidity $1

  • Ron DeSantis

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $0.2 · Liquidity $0.2

  • Donald J. Trump Jr.

    • Yes5%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Donald J. Trump

    • Yes5%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Tucker Carlson

    • Yes5%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Ivanka Trump

    • Yes5%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Ted Cruz

    • Yes5%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Glenn Youngkin

    • Yes5%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If J.D. Vance wins the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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