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When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal?

Markets

  • Before Jan 1, 2027

    • Yes22%
    • No78%

    Volume $2.2K · Liquidity $1.8K

  • Before Apr 1, 2027

    • Yes26%
    • No74%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Before Jul 1, 2027

    • Yes57%
    • No43%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Before Sep 1, 2027

    • Yes76%
    • No24%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If all 27 EU member states agree to or announce the final agreed terms of the overall political agreement on the 2028-2034 EU long-term budget (MFF), as officially declared by the European Council to have been reached by all 27 EU member states before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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