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2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Markets

  • Republicans win

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $990.9K · Liquidity $693.8K

  • Democrats, 0 to 2%

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $339.8K · Liquidity $296.5K

  • Democrats, 2 to 4%

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $285.2K · Liquidity $200.1K

  • Democrats, 12 to 14%

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $208.3K · Liquidity $118.6K

  • Democrats, 16% and above

    • Yes4%
    • No97%

    Volume $207.8K · Liquidity $167K

  • Democrats, 14 to 16%

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $206.5K · Liquidity $115.5K

  • Democrats, 10 to 12%

    • Yes23%
    • No77%

    Volume $204.1K · Liquidity $155.2K

  • Democrats, 6 to 8%

    • Yes16%
    • No84%

    Volume $190.6K · Liquidity $129.1K

  • Democrats, 8 to 10%

    • Yes25%
    • No75%

    Volume $187.4K · Liquidity $154.8K

  • Democrats, 4 to 6%

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $185.4K · Liquidity $146.7K

Resolution rules

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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