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2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?

Markets

  • R+0.9 to D+0.9

    • Yes29%
    • No71%

    Volume $5.3K · Liquidity $3.4K

  • D+5 to D+6.9

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $105 · Liquidity $21

  • D+1 to D+2.9

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $5 · Liquidity $5

  • R+7 or more

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • R+5 to R+6.9

    • Yes5%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • R+3 to R+4.9

    • Yes8%
    • No93%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • R+1 to R+2.9

    • Yes16%
    • No85%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • D+3 to D+4.9

    • Yes7%
    • No94%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • D+7 or more

    • Yes7%
    • No94%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is below -6.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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