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How many new housing units will NYC permit in 2026?

Markets

  • Above 26,000

    • Yes58%
    • No42%

    Volume $25.1 · Liquidity $25.1

  • Above 41,000

    • Yes97%
    • No3%

    Volume $2.8 · Liquidity $1.8

  • Above 23,000

    • Yes82%
    • No18%

    Volume $1 · Liquidity $1

  • Above 29,000

    • Yes26%
    • No75%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 32,000

    • Yes6%
    • No95%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 35,000

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 38,000

    • Yes5%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the New York City Department of City Planning Housing Database’s citywide count of proposed Class A housing units in New Building jobs, measured by the date of first partial construction permit issuance is above 23,000 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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