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What will NYC’s average daily shelter census be in December 2026?

Markets

  • Above 86,000

    • Yes95%
    • No5%

    Volume $410 · Liquidity $2

  • Above 92,000

    • Yes93%
    • No7%

    Volume $20 · Liquidity $5

  • Above 88,000

    • Yes94%
    • No6%

    Volume $10 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 90,000

    • Yes93%
    • No7%

    Volume $10 · Liquidity $5

  • Above 94,000

    • Yes51%
    • No49%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 96,000

    • Yes38%
    • No62%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 98,000

    • Yes26%
    • No74%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 100,000

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” is above 86,000 for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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