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Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

Markets

  • Georgia

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $20K · Liquidity $12.1K

  • North Carolina

    • Yes17%
    • No83%

    Volume $17.6K · Liquidity $14.9K

  • Alaska

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $17.4K · Liquidity $13.1K

  • Michigan

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $14.5K · Liquidity $11.3K

  • Mississippi

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $13.8K · Liquidity $12.5K

  • Montana

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $12.3K · Liquidity $10.3K

  • Louisiana

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $11.1K · Liquidity $6.3K

  • South Carolina

    • Yes17%
    • No83%

    Volume $9.1K · Liquidity $2.9K

  • Ohio

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $8K · Liquidity $6.8K

  • Florida

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $6.3K · Liquidity $5K

  • Minnesota

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $6.1K · Liquidity $6.1K

  • New Hampshire

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $5K · Liquidity $5K

  • Virginia

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $4.8K · Liquidity $4.8K

  • Texas

    • Yes31%
    • No69%

    Volume $4.1K · Liquidity $2.5K

  • Kansas

    • Yes27%
    • No73%

    Volume $3.8K · Liquidity $2.9K

  • Iowa

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $3.3K · Liquidity $3.2K

Resolution rules

If Mississippi is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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