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Will SCOTUS allow Arizona’s citizenship-proof and pre-election noncitizen-removal rules?

Markets

  • Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Republican National Committee in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota

    • Yes60%
    • No40%

    Volume $151.4 · Liquidity $12.9

Resolution rules

If the Supreme Court, in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota, rules neither the National Voter Registration Act nor a federal consent decree bars Arizona from requiring satisfactory evidence of U.S. citizenship on its state voter-registration form, and that the Act does not bar Arizona from canceling noncitizens’ registrations within 90 days of a federal election, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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